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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/14 11:01

   Grains Lower at Midday

   Corn is 18 cents to 20 cents lower on the front month, 23 cents to 25 cents 
lower on new-crop, soybeans are 30 cents to 33 cents lower on the front month, 
and 34 cents to 36 cents lower on new-crop, and wheat is 3 cents to 15 cents 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 220. The U.S. Dollar Index 
is 5 points lower. Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are firmer with 
crude up .45 cent. Livestock trade is mixed with cattle leading. Precious 
metals are weaker with gold down $14.00.


   Corn trade is 18 cents to 20 cents lower on the July with the back months 23 
cents to 25 cents lower with the wetter second week forecast encouraging 
selling overnight with the pattern of big Sunday night moves in either 
direction staying intact, with firmer spread action limiting downside during 
the day session along with the short-term forecast remaining challenging. 
Ethanol margins are solid with the energy complex remaining elevated as corn 
pulls back with good driving demand. Brazil weather looks mostly unchanged 
short term as the crop advances toward harvest with some late rains, while U.S. 
weather will be watched for consistency in the second week forecast while heat 
will be the rule of many the next few days. Weekly export inspections were a 
bit soft in the 1.544 million metric ton range, with conditions expected to be 
slightly lower and emergence ahead of normal. Corn basis should remain flat to 
weaker near term with more attention going to new crop. On the July contract, 
trade has pulled below the 20-day at $6.65 before bouncing back to it at 
midday, with the lower Bollinger band at $6.27 as support.


   Soybeans are 30 cents to 33 cents lower on the July and 34 cents to 36 cents 
lower on the November with broad selling after weaker cash premiums and better 
weather help to spur liquidation to start the week. Meal is $6.50 to $7.50 
lower and oil is 0.80 cents to 1.40 cent lower with biofuel concerns still in 
play as well after the rumored changes Friday with soyoil coming back from 
limit lower trade. The weather pattern should allow for short-term stress to 
give way to rains, with conditions likely off a point or so, with emergence 
ahead of normal, and planting wrapped up except for double crop. Export 
inspections remain inline seasonally at 128,092 metric tons (mt). South America 
should continue to see shipping progress short term, with U.S. basis soft with 
processors and exporters softening bids Friday. On the July soybean chart 
support is the lower Bollinger Band at $14.82, which we are chopping around at 


   Wheat trade is 2 cents to 12 cents lower at midday with Minneapolis the 
downside leader on expected weather improvements, winter wheat harvest 
pressure, and spillover from the row crops. The dollar is attempting to 
consolidate at over 90 on the index, which will work to limit upside if 
sustained. Warmer weather this week should help to bring winter wheat along 
after the slow down last week with early harvest getting underway on the far 
Southern Plains with heading likely slightly above average, and harvest 
catching up towards average. Other Northern Hemisphere weather will continue to 
be watched as well with little fresh news on the front with Russia mostly OK 
for now. Weekly export inspections were in line with recent weeks at 480,341 
mt. Kansas City continues at a 48-cent discount to Chicago, widening a bit, 
with Minneapolis at a 77-cent premium. KC July on the chart has resistance the 
20-day at $6.28 with support at the lower Bollinger band at $6.01.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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