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DTN Midday Grain Comments     10/04 10:53

   Corn, Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Wheat Steady-Lower

   Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
13 to 15 cents higher; wheat futures are flat to 9 cents lower. 

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Tuesday; soybean futures are 
13 to 15 cents higher; wheat futures are flat to 9 cents lower. The U.S. stock 
market is sharply higher with the DOW up 780 points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 
120 points lower. Interest rate products are firmer. Energies are firmer with 
crude up 2.95, and natural gas is up .25. Livestock trade is weaker. Precious 
metals are firmer with gold up 32.00.


   Corn futures are 5 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade quiet in 
two-sided, rangebound. Prices are firming during the day session with action 
unable to sustain buying near the recent highs as harvest moves forward. 
Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with warmer-than-normal 
temps over the next couple of weeks to keep harvest moving along. Progress on 
the weekly report showed good to excellent unchanged at 52%, 21% poor to very 
poor; 96% dented versus 97% on average; 75% mature, same as average; and 20% 
harvested versus 22% on average. The export wire will need to show more life 
soon with nothing in recent days. River issues remain notable for shipping. 
Ethanol margins will likely chop along with softer driving demand and refinery 
disruptions to keep upside limited for now. Basis will be watched to see how 
quickly we go to harvest footing everywhere and how aggressively the west will 
bid for corn in the deficit areas into early harvest with notable strength 
already, while intra-month spreads remain off the highs as shipping issues will 
limit the export market. On the December chart, trade is just above the 20-day 
moving average at $6.79 and the recent high at $6.95 above that with the lower 
Bollinger Band at $6.59 as further support.


   Soybean futures are 13 to 15 cents higher at midday with support from 
outside markets and light follow-through buying from the good start to the week 
as trade works to ease oversold conditions along with watching for fresh export 
demand with nothing on the daily wire Tuesday. Meal is $1.50 to $2.50 lower and 
oil is 165 to 185 points higher. Early planting is underway in South America 
with late demand picking up ahead of the U.S. export window. The dollar 
reversal needs to hold with Brazil in better shape than Argentina early on with 
varied short-term rain potential. Basis will continue to shift toward harvest 
footing with trade watching to see how quickly export shipments pick up into 
the end of the month with some further near-term basis pressure expected into 
October along with intramonth spread weakness adding carry in recent days along 
with areas of significant cash carry in river areas. The daily wire was quiet 
again after the small sale to start the week. Weekly crop progress showed 
conditions unchanged at 55% good to excellent, 16% poor to very poor; 81% 
dropping leaves versus 79% on average; 22% harvested versus 25% on average. On 
the November soybean chart, trade has the 20-day moving average at $14.27 as 
resistance well above the market, with the lower Bollinger band at $13.53 as 


   Wheat futures are flat to 9 cents lower with KC action leading with the 
weaker dollar and dry Plains weather adding support nearby with little change 
to overall political situation in the Black Sea. But selling continues to 
return on tests of the upper end of the range, which has limited upside this 
morning. The Plains look dry short term, but enough recent rains fell in some 
areas to keep planting moving forward with 40% planted versus 44% last year, 
and 15% emerged versus 17% on average with spring harvest likely wrapped up. 
MATIF wheat remains near the upper end of the range with choppy action to start 
the week backing off the highs as well. The KC December chart has support at 
the 20-day moving average at $9.48, and the fresh high at $10.09 as resistance, 
which we faded from again.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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