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DTN Midday Grain Comments     06/09 10:46

   Soybean Futures Higher at Midday; Corn, Wheat Lower

   Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 11 
to 21 cents higher; wheat futures are 1 to 10 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst


   Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midday Friday; soybean futures are 11 
to 21 cents higher; wheat futures are 1 to 10 cents lower. The U.S. stock 
market is firmer with the S&P up 8. The U.S. Dollar Index is 15 points higher. 
Interest rate products are weaker. Energies are mixed with crude .05 higher and 
natural gas off .05. Livestock trade is mostly higher. Precious metals are 
firmer with gold up 1.50.


   Corn futures are 6 to 8 cents lower at midday with softer spread action as 
we remain rangebound ahead of the WASDE report and weekend rains and forecasts. 
Ethanol margins should remain solid in the near term, with unleaded holding 
recent gains with fading basis more favorable for summer production. On the 
USDA report, traders are looking for old-crop carryout at 1.449 billion bushels 
(bb) up slightly from last month, with new crop at 2.254 bb, also up slightly 
with yields expected to remain at trendline. Basis continues to hold a softer 
tone with most users bidding off December at this point. The second crop in 
Brazil heads toward the homestretch with some recent rains, and a cold front 
that could hurt some of the last-planted corn in the coming days. On the July 
chart we have support at the 20-day moving average at $5.89 with the recent 
high at $6.14 hanging above the market.


   Soybean futures are 11 to 21 cents higher at midday with firmer spread 
action as we score fresh highs for the move pre-report with oil leading the 
product complex. Meal is $4.50 to $5.50 lower and oil is 175 to 195 points 
higher. The daily export wire saw sales of 197,000 metric tons (mt) old crop to 
unknown. On the report, trade will be looking for 223 million bushels (mb) of 
old-crop carryout and 345 mb of new, up slightly from last month, with 
trendline yields. Basis will likely remain a little softer with most buyers 
rolling to the back months. Planting should be on the homestretch nationally 
with the east remaining drier in the short term before broader rains should 
boost emergence over the weekend on the later-planted acres. July chart support 
is the 20-day moving average at $13.43, which we closed solidly above, with the 
Upper Bollinger Band well above the market at $13.96.


   Wheat futures are 1 to 10 cents lower with Chicago leading as the 
intra-contract spread action remains very active. There is notable volume in 
Chicago pre-report with little other fresh news. On the report, trade is 
looking for old-crop carryout at 606 mb, up slightly, and new crop at 569 mb, 
also up slightly. Warmer weather may stress spring wheat in the short term, but 
otherwise we are caught up after the slow start. Plains harvest should pick up 
around rains this weekend as well, keeping us near an average pace there. There 
are some concerns with the longer term weather pattern for Australia. The 
dollar is just off the recent highs, with Matif wheat holding solidly higher. 
On the KC July chart, the $8.00 level, which we have tested this morning 
remains resistance, with the lower Bollinger band at $7.61 as support.


   Join us for DTN's webinar at 12:30 p.m. CDT Friday as we go through the 
numbers, discuss what they mean for prices and hear DTN Lead Analyst Todd 
Hultman's take on which estimates are reasonable and which are not. We also 
welcome and make time for questions. Register here for Friday's June WASDE and 
Crop Production reports webinar: https://www.dtn.com/wasde-webinars    

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala

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