DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/18 10:56

   Corn, Beans Seeing Green; Wheat in the Red Midday Thursday

   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents higher; beans are 16 to 19 cents higher and wheat 
is 22 to 32 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

MARKET SUMMARY:

   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents higher; beans are 16 to 19 cents higher and wheat 
is 22 to 32 cents lower. The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 30 
points. The U.S. Dollar Index is 0.40 higher. Interest rate products are 
firmer. Energies are mostly higher with crude up 2.40. Livestock trade is 
weaker. Precious metals are mixed with gold $2.00 lower.

CORN:

   Corn trade is 5 to 6 cents higher at midday Thursday with buying starting to 
develop during the day session after early weakness as trade follows the lead 
of soybeans. Short-term forecasts have the center of the belt drier with milder 
temperatures short term. The export wire remains quiet with export sales 
showing improvement at 99,300 metric tons of old crop and 750,000 of new crop. 
Ethanol margins will continue to be limited by driving demand and seasonal 
slowdowns with unleaded futures finding support in recent days to keep blender 
margins flat while natural gas remains near the highs, hurting some plants 
margins. Basis will be watched to see how much further strength fades 
especially with the board rally and harvest starts in the South with mixed to 
lower yields and aflatoxin concerns so far. On the September chart, support is 
the 20-day at $6.08 and the upper Bollinger Band is the next round up at $6.41. 

SOYBEANS:

   Soybean trade is 16 to 19 cents higher at midday with spreads flattening out 
as broad buying returns during the day session with meal leading the product 
side to support crush margins. Meal is $9.00 to $10.00 higher and oil is 1.05 
cents to 1.25 cents lower. Biodiesel margins remain positive but narrowing in 
recent days with overall crush margins good. South America is on post-harvest 
footing for shipping with their advantage to persist until September with 
nothing on the daily wire Thursday, while the bulk of the U.S. is heading into 
the start of podfill season with less stressful weather this week temperature 
wise, with follow-up moisture limited for most of the west. Basis has been more 
mixed as we head towards harvest. Weekly export sales showed some strength as 
well with 96,900 metric tons of old crop, 1.3 million of new, with 66,600 of 
old meal, 296,700 of new, and 1,600 of oil. On the September soybean chart, 
support is the 20-day at $14.53, which we are well above while November has 
edged back above the 20-day at $14.04, with the upper Bollinger Band at $15.58, 
which we have faded from as resistance.

WHEAT:

   Wheat trade is 22 to 32 cents lower at midday with early gains giving way to 
fresh lows being scored as selling picks up in low volume, with fresh bullish 
news lacking and liquidation after trade failed to extend gains Wednesday, 
along with wheat being the short leg of spreads and hints of possible broader 
progress in Black Sea geopolitics. Weather in the Plains looks for better 
short-term moisture with deficits needing to be eased ahead of planting for 
Oklahoma and Texas, while spring wheat harvest should expand significantly this 
week. The dollar is rebounding a bit with mixed inflation ideas along short 
term with Egypt making some purchases without tenders while MATIF values fade 
further in low volume. Weekly export sales were softer at 207,200 metric tons. 
The KC September chart has resistance at the 20-day at $8.63, which we broke 
below Thursday morning, with the fresh lows at $8.07 scored Thursday morning as 
support.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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